Monday, February 1, 2021

Hello, World!

Popping my head above water for the first time in a while in an attempt to hold my feet to the fire -- at least when it comes to my retail portfolio.  

In 2020 *I believe* my investments appreciated a little over 15%.  Seeing as I started buying right after the March crater, it'd be hard to do worse.  I learned three things: (1) don't be under invested; (2) don't be over diversified; and (3) do your own due diligence before investing.  Fundamental and boring lessons they may be, but for me they had to be earned to be learned.  

So, going forward, this blog will chronicle my personal investments in my retail account.  Keeping those lessons in mind, I will strive to be fully invested at all times, heavily concentrated, and firm in my convictions.  At the end of ten years (yes I am a believer that decades start off odd and end even), my goal is to have an average CAGR of 20%.  While clearly a tall task, I at least made the math a little easier for myself by leveling out my account to $10,000 to start out the new year.  I will neither deposit nor withdraw anything from this account and I will pay taxes on the gains (if there are any) out of my own pocket.  All this should make keeping track of my progress simple enough.

What's the point of doing this?  What could be cooler than calling your shot 119 months in advance to the rapt attention of the two Chinese teenagers and fourteen bots that follow my blog?!  Well, for starters, $61k may be enough for first and last month's rent in 2030 for a studio in Charlestown.  If it's not, then this is me from the past telling you to buy that land in Wyoming you've always dreamed about.  The benchmark is arbitrary but it seems much more concrete and satisfying than moving the goalposts every year with a 5% beat on the S&P.  More importantly, I don't care how well everyone else is doing.  This venture is not a vanity project where I brag about my big bets or compare my gains to others; I want to learn how to accurately value businesses and profit off that knowledge.  If the recent hysteria around GME et al. has taught me anything it's that the wisdom of the crowd means nothing when the crowd is full of idiots.  Call me a retard all you want, but I'd rather lose money in a well-reasoned venture than win the lottery because an autist from WSB gave me the winning numbers. 

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